Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e75c027da08abde98949fb004efcd3aa3aae6a141fdbcecdfd18d257b27c2d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,629$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.95 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 869.77$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 26c | 605.16$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.72 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 58c | 256.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 63c | 248.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 66c | 225.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.14 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 66c | 225.05$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 40c | 154.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 139.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 34c | 139.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 39c | 132.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 122.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 29c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed Yes | 73c | 105.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 101.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 43c | 99.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 97.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 72c | 92.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 87.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 42c | 82.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 77.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 71.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 70.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed No | 69c | 69.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 67.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 63.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed Yes | 34c | 58.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed No | 62c | 50.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 30c | 50.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked No | 54c | 48.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…3629backed Yes | 31c | 47.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 74c | 39.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 33c | 37.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 32c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 66c | 36.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 68c | 35.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 35.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 63c | 34.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…cf3fbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 37c | 27.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 27.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 62c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed No | 62c | 24.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 74c | 22.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 67c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…546dbacked Yes | 58c | 20.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed No | 70c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 68c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.