MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32827a5b16b10fdf2c94be9f25bf67d1373ee011e72b9310519029575f9efe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 70c | 1,072$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.6 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 1,067$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 37c | 991$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.67 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 66c | 819.51$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 538.24$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 63c | 289.23$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 18c | 208$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 72c | 159$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 37c | 125$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 18c | 106.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 87.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…349ebacked Over | 62c | 44.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…f6dcbacked Over | 62c | 41.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…6365backed Over | 62c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…24e5backed Over | 62c | 32.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Over | 64c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…c4b1backed Over | 62c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Under | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…3bfbbacked Over | 62c | 27.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 74c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…e8fcbacked Over | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…a91dbacked Over | 63c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.