MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3492c992123a75afc3295bc6dfd22d33a2d39d53e1d17542dc3ae7582b62014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 58c | 2,906$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.36 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 2,513$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,263$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 539.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.14 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 56c | 520$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 495.44$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 478$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 477.31$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 54c | 342.32$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 30c | 205$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 196.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 54c | 189.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 183.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 44c | 139.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 29c | 100.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 47c | 97.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 24c | 45.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 33c | 42.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 44c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 66c | 24.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe55f…3251backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…338abacked Under | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.