TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$271,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$267,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,405 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Under54c180,349$96,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,959.6113561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over46c63,333$29,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,899.821,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over46c50,000$23,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,0007550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over46c31,261$14,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,880.9492054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over46c18,241$8,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,784.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over47c13,779$6,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,365.374,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over46c10,350$4,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,58911656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over46c10,063$4,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,434.0332152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Over46c6,583$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,554.614047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over45c5,160$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,838.2427254.4%148 W · 124 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over47c5,000$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6751,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Over46c4,592$2,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.925257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over47c3,710$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.713,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over46c2,737$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.995726.3%15 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+221.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.9189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over45c1,800$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99086653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over46c1,785$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.841,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over49c1,633$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.831,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under51c1,612$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.0641149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Over63c1,553$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.6191252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Over46c1,300$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7021457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over46c1,178$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.121,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under55c1,175$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.273748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010246.1%47 W · 55 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Under54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59421052.9%111 W · 99 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over57c1,058$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.218,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Over46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5401154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…57ebbacked Over46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Over46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Over47c999.99$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9955052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c999.98$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.995,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under14c893.33$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8212,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over47c812.12$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.768,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over46c700$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37885952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under54c658.25$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.472,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Under54c613.06$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.055143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c599.98$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.086,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over46c505.07$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.7465549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Under53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26521653.2%115 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Over46c499$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.461,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under47c457.25$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.923,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Over47c402$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.068856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under55c400$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2184,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21295850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Under54c366.04$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.663455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under35c286.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.188,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under52c284.98$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.411,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Under39c253.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007444.6%33 W · 41 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Over46c246.84$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2929255.8%163 W · 129 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a12…cba0backed Over46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4559…1c26backed Under54c217$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.182045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over47c213$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.891,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under53c205.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3889053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10226860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Under57c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1311047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over55c185$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.61,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over76c180$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.25,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19bd…ae36backed Over46c177.87$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0518652.7%98 W · 88 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Over47c159.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7935650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over48c156.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2565248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1184…a836backed Over48c156.25$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.251250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over52c155.33$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.526,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2573…2726backed Under53c150.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8023051.7%119 W · 111 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Under54c148.56$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7815857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over46c146$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.842,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under53c145$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8577050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Under55c123.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6815147%71 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under54c109.9$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.891,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6210…4fb1backed Over46c108$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3214759.9%88 W · 59 L+14.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Under53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5384651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked Under51c94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9414751.7%76 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc254…c435backed Under54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011044.5%49 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.299624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under55c90$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.299447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Under54c88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5242550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked Over48c77.46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2814555.9%81 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf2c…164ebacked Over59c67.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Over46c65.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3113853.6%74 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over46c62.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.762,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Over47c59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3511442.1%48 W · 66 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a9…04c8backed Under55c56.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Under54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024742.9%106 W · 141 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaf9…3a59backed Under54c55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.716544.8%74 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f97…6aafbacked Over46c54.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5611149.5%55 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under39c51.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.015,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Under53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3355643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Under53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2562554.2%339 W · 286 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over44c45.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.43,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under55c37.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd687…a024backed Under55c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.356063.3%38 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0edb…8260backed Under53c36.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under44c30.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.529242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1f…4a48backed Over46c30.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4313056.2%73 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Over61c30.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9677353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed Under54c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3811949.6%59 W · 60 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over46c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9678155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.