MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630e3ca23d005af0c2153da057374fdaa85fce2835ca05338616bf4fd04bf644
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 10,310$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 9,077$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.17 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,071$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.3 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 999.37$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.79 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 879.34$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 702.59$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 604.1$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.48 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 591.29$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 587.35$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.23 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 584.67$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 542.74$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 27c | 474$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 411$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 391$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 260.95$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 199.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 173$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 170.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 119.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…4c76backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 89.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 79.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 60.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed San Diego Padres | 54c | 53.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 51.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 51.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Washington Nationals | 27c | 50.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 43.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 42.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 39.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 24.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed San Diego Padres | 69c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington NationalsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.