NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36a745a5d631f7b9da490a4e625a3789e2c6077ed6fe6228423f49c7b38394a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Avalanche, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x336a…1967backed Avalanche | 32c | 680.45$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…4332backed Oilers | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e6…7e59backed Oilers | 68c | 380$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Oilers | 69c | 340.2$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 68c | 314.31$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…0529backed Avalanche | 32c | 303.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…b202backed Oilers | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf50…b426backed Avalanche | 35c | 215.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Avalanche | 32c | 203.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Avalanche | 25c | 189.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Oilers | 58c | 180.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Oilers | 68c | 175.78$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Avalanche | 33c | 147.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Avalanche | 39c | 126.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Oilers | 77c | 119.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Avalanche | 48c | 116.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Avalanche | 20c | 109.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Avalanche | 29c | 109.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Avalanche | 25c | 103.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc4…db58backed Oilers | 69c | 98.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Oilers | 69c | 93.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche | 32c | 91.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Avalanche | 21c | 85.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Avalanche | 41c | 70.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Avalanche | 31c | 63.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Avalanche | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Oilers | 68c | 59.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Oilers | 65c | 56.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Avalanche | 37c | 49.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Avalanche | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Avalanche | 30c | 38.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked Avalanche | 30c | 38.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Avalanche | 42c | 37.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Avalanche | 31c | 33.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Avalanche | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Oilers | 68c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Oilers | 69c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Oilers | 69c | 26.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Oilers | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Oilers | 69c | 19.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Oilers | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55d…3f1dbacked Oilers | 71c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. OilersAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.