NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd62669ae2e5ea7fc4437e81c2f0cef6e13a62f290a1d90587ed15273f19ad59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 20c | 4,520$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,637.56 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 1,642$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…11f1backed Under | 46c | 1,248$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…c764backed Over | 56c | 860$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed Under | 50c | 738.25$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 499.82$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.84 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 374.87$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 42c | 368.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed Under | 49c | 358.43$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 263.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.4 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…a152backed Under | 35c | 260$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 248.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 45c | 246$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b1…092ebacked Under | 47c | 214.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd714…9a62backed Over | 53c | 183.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under | 57c | 176.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 42c | 171.97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 50c | 148.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 134.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 54c | 106.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 79c | 88.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 57c | 87.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 16c | 77.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 51c | 70.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 17c | 58.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 43.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 51c | 31.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…a6d2backed Under | 41c | 29.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Under | 50c | 26.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.45per pick | 24cpaid | +147.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 47c | 25.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…02e8backed Over | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…1139backed Over | 58c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. OilersAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Oilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.