NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448d8952d70922ee57c11b6b2a30b9f36d274e462abf8c31f117b56b62486dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc19e…c764backed Over | 66c | 4,774$3,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,155.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 33c | 2,976$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.7 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d2…3ecbbacked Over | 68c | 737.26$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 38c | 710.63$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.59 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 520$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.05 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 37c | 319$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.17 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 62c | 291.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.43 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 276.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 35c | 244.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 42c | 237.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked Over | 65c | 137.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 62c | 122.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 34c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 101.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 100.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 35c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 64c | 59.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked Under | 39c | 57.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 55.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 35c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 37c | 46.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 34c | 37.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 64c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 62c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. OilersAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Oilers won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.