World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf378e99efa39f5f592503313a7c97ea2267eaf58002e41978811c4fa1bcb09ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 647.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…f896backed Yes | 32c | 469.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 434.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 7c | 424.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…e064backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 262.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 224.73$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 76c | 207.46$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…bb38backed Yes | 7c | 207.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 8c | 200.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 190.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 173.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 165.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 32c | 157.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 149.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 9c | 145.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 10c | 140.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 14c | 133.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 129.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 122.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…c592backed Yes | 19c | 118.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 78c | 114.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 91.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 83.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 83.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 21c | 75.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 17c | 69.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 53.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 53.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 53.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 70c | 36.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 28.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 27.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…91cfbacked No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 72c | 25.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked No | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 73c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.