World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2756ee6de2c13034716520770342ed802c82a58e1916b3e3a8725fbf948ab3c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 58c | 548.46$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 499.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.03 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 31c | 406.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 384$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.89 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 234.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.16 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 230.22$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 228$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 39c | 219.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.21 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 72c | 217.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 72c | 215.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 176.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 172.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 150.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 144$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…c592backed Yes | 34c | 140.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 42c | 139.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked No | 68c | 138.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 30c | 138.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 78c | 129.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 129.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 127.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 127.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 80c | 117.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 31c | 117.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 114.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 73c | 114.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 32c | 112.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 42c | 109.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 105.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…b535backed Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 104.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 103$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 102.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 102.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 41c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 98.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 96.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 94.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 34c | 90.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 87.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 29c | 85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 73c | 82.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 42c | 81.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 80.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 80.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 77.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 77.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 76.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 76.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 31c | 75.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…24a9backed Yes | 27c | 71.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 26c | 66.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 66.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 29c | 66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 65.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…c1b2backed Yes | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4756…ef3fbacked Yes | 77c | 64.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 60.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed No | 76c | 60.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 31c | 60.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 59.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 35c | 58.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 23c | 57.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 47c | 57.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 57.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 55.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 53.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…12eebacked Yes | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 80c | 50.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 48.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 38c | 47.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 47.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 62c | 43.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 34c | 43.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 42.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 41.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 66c | 41.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.