Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3952e01916aeeb72473ef1725e4c700d5bfebf554035a62d1c92e69a9aab78d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 567.98$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 535.95$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 401.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 350.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 348.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 20c | 308.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 232.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 165.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 24c | 164.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 153.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 152.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 141.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 24c | 131.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 26c | 117.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 108.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 108.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 104.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 95.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 90.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 87.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 71c | 84.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 24c | 82.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 80.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 74c | 77.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 35c | 70.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 22c | 62.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 60.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 76c | 60.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 22c | 55.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 23c | 55.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 73c | 42.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 73c | 41.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 40.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 78c | 33.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 75c | 28.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 74c | 28.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 74c | 25.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 24.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 24.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…9b41backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.