Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6319ce604b9906f0a178717a6841bbf46a0ba59c71fb1d19062ad50d6d76391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 49c | 664.75$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 294$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 260.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 255.95$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 229.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 223.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 50c | 220.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 160.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 118.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 108.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 104.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 38c | 100.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 98.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 98.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 94.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 93.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 34c | 87.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 84.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 67c | 74.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 71.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 74c | 66.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 66.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 66.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 48c | 61.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 26c | 57.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 56.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 52c | 49.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 49.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 49.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 64c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 46.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 43.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 42.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 32c | 41.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 78c | 36.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 35.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 35.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 32.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 37c | 31.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 31.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 31.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 30.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 39c | 30.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 29.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…ecd4backed Yes | 79c | 28.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 25.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 24.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 18.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 17.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…49b0backed Yes | 61c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.