F1 · resolved market
Verstappen vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ac9c2293569524295d3a155d9a3058c6b8333c84aac6f9f6ddca669f489e33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Verstappenof Verstappen, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbc…5d23backed Norris | 69c | 409.93$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…147ebacked Verstappen | 36c | 339.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Verstappen | 78c | 302.52$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Norris | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Verstappen | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Verstappen | 68c | 160.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Norris | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Verstappen | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Norris | 24c | 134.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Verstappen | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Norris | 61c | 53.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Norris | 60c | 35.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Verstappen | 59c | 21.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Verstappen vs. Norris this page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaTsunoda won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenVerstappen won
- Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriVerstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.