F1 · resolved market
Piastri vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dde6c38761200a4895c494d92a47b1af276382c4801a1ebbc9ad5f2a8308586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piastriof Piastri, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Norris | 23c | 8,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Norris | 17c | 5,311$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.57 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Norris | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Norris | 29c | 490.79$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Norris | 44c | 319.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Piastri | 56c | 266.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Piastri | 55c | 240$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Piastri | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Norris | 45c | 190$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…3b4bbacked Piastri | 59c | 168.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…edb9backed Norris | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Piastri | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Piastri | 55c | 149.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Norris | 44c | 111$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Piastri | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Norris | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Piastri | 54c | 91.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Norris | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Piastri | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Norris | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Piastri | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…d618backed Piastri | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…5f7abacked Piastri | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…8284backed Piastri | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +66%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Piastri vs. Norris this page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaTsunoda won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenVerstappen won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Verstappen won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriVerstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.