F1 · resolved market
Hamilton vs. Leclerc
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df951e3cb6f39203a8ba1abe07b1a25ac681c1d78aec33a108befc622323a97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leclercof Hamilton, Leclerc
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Leclerc | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Hamilton | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Leclerc | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Leclerc | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Hamilton | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hamilton | 49c | 291.37$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.77 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Leclerc | 44c | 250$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Hamilton | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…6887backed Leclerc | 46c | 246.03$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…2e4bbacked Hamilton | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…5922backed Leclerc | 49c | 152.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9ebfbacked Hamilton | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Leclerc | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…5183backed Hamilton | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Hamilton | 52c | 58.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…da90backed Hamilton | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Hamilton | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…21dfbacked Hamilton | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6d9fbacked Hamilton | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Hamilton | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…8c7abacked Hamilton | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamilton vs. Leclercthis page
- Albon vs. SainzSainz won
- Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaTsunoda won
- Hamilton vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. RussellRussell won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenVerstappen won
- Piastri vs. Norris Piastri won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Verstappen won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriVerstappen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.