Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c5acfa1bbcba04a92863c209fb50a2cc677847c01322c9edfbee915190416c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfB Stuttgartof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, VfB Stuttgart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 61c | 13,040$7,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,134.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 12,500$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.99 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 43c | 3,853$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked VfB Stuttgart | 57c | 3,000$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VfB Stuttgart | 59c | 1,018$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 645$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.72 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked VfB Stuttgart | 64c | 455$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…8548backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 24c | 336.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 299.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed VfB Stuttgart | 61c | 291.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 24c | 153.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 143.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed VfB Stuttgart | 37c | 134.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 123.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…8cf6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 121.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 101.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 21c | 91.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 21c | 82.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked VfB Stuttgart | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed VfB Stuttgart | 65c | 58.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 40c | 50.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 40.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 39.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…1ec3backed VfB Stuttgart | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2e…12babacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 41c | 28.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked VfB Stuttgart | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked VfB Stuttgart | 62c | 20.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…c68bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 61c | 17.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed VfB Stuttgart | 78c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.