Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b77f72830de082be59f95c93983d10324147d1ee2766bad0d26ee690d1e2c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 3,674$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.74 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 49c | 3,276$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 43c | 1,796$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.13 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 29c | 850.56$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.79 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 9c | 562.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 516.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.02 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 58c | 459.98$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.73 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 78c | 401.27$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 31c | 335.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.45 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Over | 78c | 256.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 71c | 254.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 72c | 222.22$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 170.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 78c | 157.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Under | 67c | 150.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 36c | 93.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Under | 21c | 86.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…0ebbbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 54c | 82.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 74c | 82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 53c | 72.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 65.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 55c | 59.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 28c | 50.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 29c | 48.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 25c | 48.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Under | 72c | 44.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 34.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 74c | 31.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 72c | 27.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 77cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 69c | 26.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…8ab9backed Under | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2912…6817backed Over | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 74c | 18.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.