Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51ba25098ccbea302e6d1fdec152a49b91abd4629a81094fe8e6cfb6c926c027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 17c | 1,018$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 31c | 599.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.96 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 577.74$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 31c | 493.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 21c | 350.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 72c | 344.37$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 29c | 309$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 21c | 276.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 27c | 224.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 73c | 220.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 70c | 199.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 29c | 162.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 29c | 154.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…01ffbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 69c | 104.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 72c | 103.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Over | 67c | 100.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…f0dcbacked Over | 72c | 68.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 69c | 65.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Under | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…b100backed Over | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 28c | 54.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 31c | 44.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 29c | 34.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 30c | 34.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 70c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…f1cdbacked Over | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…bcb3backed Over | 70c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.