Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c37ccb0245afc1310d74a451db787e8f1fc1c36a12cd9f029d49bc09ed03fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 71c | 10,000$7,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.98 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 29c | 5,401$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed Yes | 72c | 3,887$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 29c | 3,616$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.65 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 29c | 2,300$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.07 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 29c | 1,370$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 29c | 988.61$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.43 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 29c | 770.3$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.33 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 29c | 750.06$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.22 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 70c | 642.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 28c | 627.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 72c | 603.93$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 71c | 595.26$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 29c | 407$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Yes | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 28c | 284.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed No | 29c | 161.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 29c | 148$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 28c | 146.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 135.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 28c | 133.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 28c | 108.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 29c | 101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 67c | 100.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Yes | 68c | 91.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked No | 29c | 90.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 28c | 88.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 28c | 87.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 29c | 75.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 71c | 70.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 29c | 68.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 71c | 54.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b692backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…d295backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 71c | 36.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 71c | 29.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Yes | 72c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 71c | 26.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…dbcfbacked Yes | 72c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…31c0backed Yes | 72c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…c244backed Yes | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…a6cabacked Yes | 71c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa036…6aa1backed Yes | 70c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.