La Liga · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3cf6fae1fc4a2991ce6337a1512b75647d3342c11b8658f782767ee77994c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 40c | 71,900$28,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,759.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 58,021$32,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,080.53 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 60c | 16,392$9,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,556.74 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 19c | 13,009$2,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,471.36 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 79c | 12,835$10,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.42 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 2,400$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.58 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 60c | 1,256$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.04 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7d…80c6backed No | 26c | 1,180$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 18c | 1,089$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 80c | 958.53$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 46c | 739.68$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.04 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…c084backed Yes | 43c | 706$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 18c | 553.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Yes | 55c | 471.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 72c | 433.93$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…d0c5backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked No | 61c | 326.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d2…7fb7backed Yes | 64c | 310.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 18c | 309.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.13 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…3627backed Yes | 46c | 217.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Yes | 44c | 193.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked No | 54c | 153.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 69c | 144.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 50c | 133.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 55c | 129.81$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…12a8backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 17c | 107.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 34c | 106$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 22c | 96.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +15.1wins | +0.30per pick | 14cpaid | +663.6%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…ee20backed Yes | 40c | 84.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf89f…bd07backed Yes | 69c | 63.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…2b10backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 39c | 37.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff8…3011backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdebe…6051backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Barcelona end in a draw?this page
- Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-08-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.