MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3dfedc5c10b13e9b7650e8b6fc15ada086b0bd939ecb1a6973d5d9b05769bbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 12,550$6,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 51c | 12,407$6,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,326.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 56c | 10,104$5,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,658.24 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 7,179$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 3,356$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 1,490$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.63 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 1,174$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.12 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 688.73$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 56c | 405.73$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…000fbacked Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 250.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 181.15$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 45c | 174.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 151.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 78c | 126.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 20c | 107.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 101.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 45c | 60.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Under | 42c | 53.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Under | 68c | 47.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 45c | 39.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 34c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 80c | 31.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…c217backed Under | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 49c | 25.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 53c | 25.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.