MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3eb332b52ed593d9b5f0c96517180a2d6e0cbf3bcac402d9e07484b5c917e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 12,539$5,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,523.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 60c | 8,475$5,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,068.81 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…b51abacked Over | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 52c | 1,958$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.41 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 53c | 1,924$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.69 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 1,526$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 48c | 1,062$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.85 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 927$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.07 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 676.24$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.41 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 53c | 655$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.15 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 618.6$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 495.78$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 367.88$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 265.76$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.51 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 246.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 47c | 212$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Over | 53c | 189.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 53c | 177.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 50c | 156.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 42c | 143$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 54c | 125.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 53c | 97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 20c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 62c | 69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 63.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 61.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…65e3backed Over | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 60.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 59.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 21c | 53.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…d962backed Over | 54c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 62c | 45.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 60c | 44.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…4eebbacked Over | 61c | 40.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -13.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 38c | 34.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Under | 63c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.