Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3eabd1831c2c724d99866efb4b6d41cd3c8398f25d9c96efb2b3d6f825e0ab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 184.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 159.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 13c | 158.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 79c | 143.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 54c | 112.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 78c | 106$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 100.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 89.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 83.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 63.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 37c | 61.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 60.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 24c | 55.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 49c | 51.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 49.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 47c | 49.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 46c | 48.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 47.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 63c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 38c | 42.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…b2e8backed Yes | 37c | 40.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 44c | 38.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 38.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 35.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 33.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 38c | 31.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 45c | 30.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 22.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 20.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 20.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.