Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d86706a5c690fbbce3198b34417cb89318c5e6c88c8d210c94a6f1191d9f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 315.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 223.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 75c | 221.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 184.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 52c | 165.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 77c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 144.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 125.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 70c | 114.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 77c | 111$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 32c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 109.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 35c | 84.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed Yes | 18c | 81.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 31c | 77.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 36c | 70.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked No | 75c | 67.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 66.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed Yes | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 33c | 60.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 35c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…0fdabacked No | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 38c | 44.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 32c | 42.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb6…85afbacked Yes | 48c | 41.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 40.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666d…340bbacked Yes | 78c | 34.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 30.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 38c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 51c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 74c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…60f4backed No | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 46c | 26.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…e6c1backed Yes | 41c | 24.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 62c | 24.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 48c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 60c | 19.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 72c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked No | 69c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 14.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.