Movies · resolved market
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be at least 48m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40ae1550d2553ffed37ee5f1b4c16bc49a73d9b8ae8f7d06bf4ef84ff5b3ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e25…9712backed No | 27c | 1,541$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 14c | 1,307$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.28 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 426.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 316.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…c95cbacked Yes | 63c | 254$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 52c | 228$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 187.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 14c | 170.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 165$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Yes | 70c | 102.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 102.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 26c | 99.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -13.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 73c | 93.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 25c | 58.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 28c | 47.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…403ebacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -14.8wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 37.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 62c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 78c | 15.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be at least 48m?this page
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be between 45m and 48m?No won
- Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be less than 36m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.