Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 154.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf40bc84bb4404ea8eea94439889ff1e52ff97bafd6685dd9fff69669d7bb59d6

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $784,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $796,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $784,949 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under	58c	634,023$367,677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367,677.21	359	45.1%162 W · 197 L	-24.4wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Over	42c	318,216$133,851 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184,365.35	896	45.9%411 W · 485 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	42c	250,000$105,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145,000	98	60.2%59 W · 39 L	+9.9wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+23%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	42c	150,000$63,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87,000	691	42.8%296 W · 395 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Under	58c	84,000$48,712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48,712	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9723…77d8backed Under	57c	20,000$11,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,400	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over	42c	15,000$6,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,700	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Under	58c	14,400$8,352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,352	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-8.7wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	43c	12,454$5,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,118.24	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over	42c	11,111$4,667 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,444.38	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	57c	8,000$4,559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,559.08	369	44.2%163 W · 206 L	-19.0wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over	42c	4,000$1,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,320	170	50.6%86 W · 84 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	44c	2,648$1,173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,474.81	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Under	58c	2,160$1,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,252.8	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Over	44c	2,000$880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120	123	58.5%72 W · 51 L	+10.3wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed Under	57c	1,752$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda12…38d6backed Under	58c	1,080$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.4	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Over	43c	911.24$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.4	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over	43c	800$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456	557	49.2%274 W · 283 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Over	43c	690$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.3	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e82…7670backed Over	44c	511.36$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.36	186	50%93 W · 93 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Under	57c	500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	54c	425$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.5	2,896	50%1,448 W · 1,448 L	+71.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…fb30backed Under	58c	379.74$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.25	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under	56c	332.99$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.36	141	51.1%72 W · 69 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb6…735cbacked Under	58c	324$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.92	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Under	58c	283.11$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.2	94	40.4%38 W · 56 L	-9.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Under	58c	179$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.82	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b05…b227backed Under	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Under	58c	166.66$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.66	74	50%37 W · 37 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Under	57c	148$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.36	321	46.7%150 W · 171 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Under	58c	144$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.52	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6299…dd7dbacked Under	58c	144$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.52	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0f…68f6backed Under	58c	125.05$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.53	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3951…c5b2backed Over	44c	123.57$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.2	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over	45c	111.6$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.38	441	46.5%205 W · 236 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92bf…0f9bbacked Under	58c	108$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.64	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.5	891	46.2%412 W · 479 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	44c	91.95$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.49	4,552	50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L	-36.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…57ffbacked Under	58c	86.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed Over	43c	81.4$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.4	237	54.9%130 W · 107 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	43c	69.16$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.26	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8155…eb2cbacked Under	58c	68.07$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d81…20c3backed Over	52c	58.09$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.09	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+2.9wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Over	44c	53.23$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.81	427	51.8%221 W · 206 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Under	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc079…8881backed Over	45c	50.33$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.68	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea1…9569backed Under	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	643	22.9%147 W · 496 L	-17.1wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Under	58c	49.69$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Over	43c	35.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.35	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf1…47a4backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9487…54bbbacked Over	45c	33.45$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.45	362	48.6%176 W · 186 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5084…40a4backed Under	58c	31.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over	44c	26.73$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.97	1,667	36.4%607 W · 1,060 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb71e…4851backed Under	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	43c	24.86$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.05	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Under	58c	23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf8…11b2backed Under	58c	21.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e92…18c4backed Under	58c	21.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-6.7wins	-0.26per pick	53cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 154.5this page
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-6.5)Texas Longhorns won
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-7.5)Texas Longhorns won
Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky WildcatsKentucky Wildcats won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 154.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event