Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8ad4ba89640b1be6b2ff91094240eb82f78c2d38812946cf1824607106dd031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Longhornsof Kentucky Wildcats, Texas Longhorns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $394,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $396,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af1…0f7bbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 57c | 377,163$214,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214,920.96 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 317,369$136,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180,900.51 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texas Longhorns | 43c | 21,000$9,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,970 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 7,914$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,509.19 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Longhorns | 45c | 5,819$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,228.13 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Texas Longhorns | 50c | 3,534$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.07 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 3,500$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Kentucky Wildcats | 52c | 3,152$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.37 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Texas Longhorns | 43c | 2,577$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 2,260$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 2,220$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 1,900$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Texas Longhorns | 43c | 1,773$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.62 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.89 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Texas Longhorns | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Kentucky Wildcats | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…be02backed Kentucky Wildcats | 51c | 102.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Texas Longhorns | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 88.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 85.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 68.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 46.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Texas Longhorns | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…bd4bbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 57c | 45.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Texas Longhorns | 43c | 44.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Texas Longhorns | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 39.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Kentucky Wildcats | 58c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas Longhorns | 46c | 23.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Texas Longhorns | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…07f5backed Texas Longhorns | 79c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-6.5)this page
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-7.5)Texas Longhorns won
- Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky WildcatsKentucky Wildcats won
- Texas Longhorns vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 154.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.