Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41920ee86dbcbe2ec31588716fd4c76b6841e908f591c15d5bca87dc2a15b33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 68c | 5,058$3,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420.95 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 2,875$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.75 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 24c | 2,486$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.26 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 24c | 532.51$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked No | 77c | 470$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 75c | 290.4$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 75c | 205$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…b715backed Yes | 25c | 152$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 27c | 134$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 76c | 130.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 21c | 98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed No | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 55c | 60.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 77c | 48.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 39c | 39.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 40c | 25.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 18.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-08-22?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.