Middle East · resolved market
Will France recognize Palestine before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d62f1c349d76d26d27c6b6c9ae6bd155e05f6e171557ed3730aa4e602e6abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 7,467$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 2,654$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…d247backed Yes | 27c | 2,003$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…6f4dbacked No | 79c | 1,752$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 25c | 1,082$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.17 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 6c | 900$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 25c | 870.08$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 6c | 826.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 69c | 477.66$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.82 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…a8fbbacked Yes | 22c | 449.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 15c | 442.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 19c | 397.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 350.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed No | 78c | 299.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 77c | 280$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 80c | 248$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…cd37backed No | 74c | 248$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 203.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…b168backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…8545backed Yes | 8c | 198.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…a028backed No | 71c | 166.46$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…37a7backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…4c4abacked No | 72c | 159.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…e8f8backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13f…6d45backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…69c2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8474…5499backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 82.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…f5bebacked No | 78c | 79.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 75c | 75.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…b660backed Yes | 33c | 62.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…021cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed No | 76c | 59.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…2aeebacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed No | 76c | 52.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…2958backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…46cfbacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…1253backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…c8afbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…b781backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac69…84f2backed No | 74c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…432ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…604fbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…4599backed No | 74c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.