Champions League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e45b810b3b899f6a4a8b576526cc1fa23617252a8680ea0c371693eb47d66e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eef…83aabacked Over | 33c | 13,258$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,369.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 10,347$6,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,408.26 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 71c | 626.04$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.35 | 881 | 37.7%332 W · 549 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 479.28$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 67c | 479.26$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 13c | 264.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 17c | 233.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.84 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 217.89$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 994 | 35%348 W · 646 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 67c | 182$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 70c | 141.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 66c | 139.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 68c | 105.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 44c | 105.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 61 | 68.9%42 W · 19 L | +8.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 70c | 93.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 67c | 91.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 70c | 86.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 69c | 77.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 67c | 65.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 71c | 40.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Under | 67c | 37.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 72c | 33.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 67c | 25.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Under | 67c | 21.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…a242backed Under | 67c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Under | 68c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Under | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 1.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Aarhus GF O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)Sabah FK won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Sabah FK won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.