Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae9dd748234d94eaea74c12b79d60c5e1809282dc97bdea349c5bf6b3af032c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabah FKof Aarhus GF, Sabah FK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6e8…7c26backed Aarhus GF | 34c | 13,722$4,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,615.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Sabah FK | 67c | 7,622$5,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.18 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aarhus GF | 28c | 3,257$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.37 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sabah FK | 68c | 1,219$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Aarhus GF | 32c | 951.07$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.59 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Aarhus GF | 29c | 606.1$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.24 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Sabah FK | 66c | 521.42$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.75 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Aarhus GF | 23c | 489.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Sabah FK | 67c | 458.95$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Sabah FK | 67c | 427.56$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sabah FK | 71c | 341.62$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Aarhus GF | 33c | 262$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Sabah FK | 67c | 258.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Sabah FK | 67c | 239.5$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…7551backed Aarhus GF | 34c | 177.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sabah FK | 63c | 172.56$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Aarhus GF | 29c | 158.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7391…5375backed Sabah FK | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…d8abbacked Sabah FK | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…31fbbacked Sabah FK | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Sabah FK | 65c | 132.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Sabah FK | 37c | 125.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +158%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Sabah FK | 67c | 123$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Sabah FK | 39c | 119.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed Aarhus GF | 36c | 111.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +63%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Aarhus GF | 58c | 107.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 274 | 50.7%139 W · 135 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Sabah FK | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Aarhus GF | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sabah FK | 46c | 83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sabah FK | 68c | 80.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sabah FK | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 306 | 56.9%174 W · 132 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Sabah FK | 65c | 73.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Sabah FK | 69c | 71.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…3b3fbacked Sabah FK | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Aarhus GF | 38c | 66.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Sabah FK | 66c | 61.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Sabah FK | 68c | 60.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Sabah FK | 68c | 60.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Sabah FK | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Aarhus GF | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sabah FK | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 245 | 45.3%111 W · 134 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb730…e9c2backed Sabah FK | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Aarhus GF | 28c | 38.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Sabah FK | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked Sabah FK | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Sabah FK | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Sabah FK | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Sabah FK | 71c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 135 | 67.4%91 W · 44 L | +9.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Aarhus GF | 61c | 21.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Sabah FK | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Sabah FK | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Sabah FK | 72c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Sabah FK | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Sabah FK | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Sabah FK | 70c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Sabah FK | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Aarhus GF O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Sabah FK won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.