Champions League · resolved market
Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e1686f15eb6a9e9440f6dadb8f3460a2124eb5374c269b4c97b148ef58b3190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 23c | 4,762$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.34 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 62c | 3,041$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.76 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 41c | 2,151$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.46 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 1,742$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.25 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 62c | 1,556$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593 | 1,021 | 35.3%360 W · 661 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 66c | 1,072$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.4 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 1,003$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.28 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 78c | 961$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 266 | 45.9%122 W · 144 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 2c | 950$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 77c | 948.05$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.05 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 27c | 708.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 69c | 671.2$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.74 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dac…6b71backed Over | 78c | 590.99$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 77c | 398$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 74c | 342.62$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 22c | 267.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 338 | 44.7%151 W · 187 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 78c | 256$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 299 | 49.5%148 W · 151 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 10c | 205.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +158%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…0d5ebacked Over | 58c | 205$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 74c | 189.5$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Under | 12c | 170.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 78c | 142.59$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 108.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058a…7fdbbacked Under | 24c | 104.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 94.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…17fcbacked Over | 77c | 94.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 56c | 93.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 78c | 77.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 222 | 45%100 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 72c | 64.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 44c | 61.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 60.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 40c | 59.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…e43dbacked Over | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 23c | 53.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 77c | 50.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 29c | 47.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 308 | 56.8%175 W · 133 L | +11.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 29c | 44.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…d4a0backed Under | 35c | 33.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 79c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Over | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 76c | 27.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 77c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…8ae0backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 79c | 24.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +20.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed Over | 66c | 20.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…ac24backed Over | 79c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 520 | 46.7%243 W · 277 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 79c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 1.5this page
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Aarhus GF O/U 1.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: O/U 5.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 0.5Over won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 1.5Under won
- Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)Sabah FK won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)Sabah FK won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: Sabah FK (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.