NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4fdcefe487f63c799c94e22543eb14b91c63302c11831c685ec0e7574b748bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 54c | 5,782$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Celtics | 46c | 5,389$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.82 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 52c | 4,346$2,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 45c | 3,243$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.21 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Celtics | 52c | 2,617$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.34 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 54c | 2,076$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics | 47c | 1,736$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.4 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4057…b6a8backed Celtics | 47c | 1,447$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Raptors | 56c | 1,351$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.4 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Raptors | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Celtics | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Raptors | 57c | 873.93$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.92 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics | 48c | 400$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Celtics | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors | 52c | 217$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Celtics | 43c | 202.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Celtics | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 50c | 197.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.02 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Raptors | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Celtics | 52c | 193.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Celtics | 47c | 139.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Raptors | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Celtics | 43c | 105.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Raptors | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors | 48c | 85.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Raptors | 27c | 82.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…4dafbacked Raptors | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raptors | 48c | 64.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Celtics | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Celtics | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Raptors | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Raptors | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Celtics | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Celtics | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Celtics | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Celtics | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…01bdbacked Celtics | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Raptors | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Celtics | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)this page
- Celtics vs. RaptorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.