NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe66ba1223dad5e9e508dd447d21f2f7a4c5dbcdcbf470e0e2850648911dfdf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Celtics | 44c | 5,726$2,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.6 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 48c | 4,710$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.93 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Raptors | 56c | 4,453$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Raptors | 56c | 3,071$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.8 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 56c | 2,704$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Celtics | 43c | 2,233$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.56 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Raptors | 55c | 1,925$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.75 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 55c | 1,903$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Celtics | 45c | 810$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.5 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Raptors | 60c | 555$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Celtics | 43c | 462$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.58 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 45c | 316.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Celtics | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Celtics | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Raptors | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Celtics | 45c | 184.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Celtics | 38c | 153.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 48c | 87.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Celtics | 43c | 77.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Raptors | 59c | 71.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Celtics | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Celtics | 43c | 43.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…adb7backed Celtics | 42c | 42.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Celtics | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Celtics | 43c | 30.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 57c | 25.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Raptors | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Raptors | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Raptors | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)this page
- Celtics vs. RaptorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.