NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa682f1ce37dbc13554431cccba987a823fa44e8f1b743c02046b3e230a4b1c41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 3,347$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.12 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Over | 44c | 3,289$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.62 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 50c | 422$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 51c | 393.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 373$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 79c | 314.88$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 204$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Under | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 34c | 121.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 116.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Over | 16c | 100.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 41c | 74.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 59c | 74.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…adb7backed Over | 43c | 41.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 27.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5this page
- Celtics vs. RaptorsCeltics won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-2.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.