TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under51c2,273$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.6174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under51c414.29$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2032,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over49c414.29$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20362347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c267.35$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.69,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under53c185.46$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.171,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5055533.5%186 W · 369 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Over49c99.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6113550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Over47c94.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3411445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0587647.5%416 W · 460 L+3.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2412952.7%68 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Over47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206445.3%29 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.836651.4%188 W · 178 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.847948%230 W · 249 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.831551.1%161 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Under56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7961056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1d…ff79backed Under52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50aa…70ddbacked Over49c22.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118760.9%53 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.