TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,682 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under53c1,133$601 inWon+$532.672,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under53c850$451 inWon+$399.591050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c778.28$366 inLost-$365.69,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over35c776.39$274 inLost-$273.8724138.6%93 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under53c567.95$300 inWon+$267.6215543.2%67 W · 88 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c478.53$225 inLost-$224.914,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over46c207.41$95 inLost-$95.414,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over46c205.28$94 inLost-$94.433,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Under54c204.26$110 inWon+$9461747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6870…5826backed Under54c200$108 inWon+$9254853.8%295 W · 253 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Over47c188.67$89 inLost-$88.6763447.5%301 W · 333 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91db…26bdbacked Under53c142.2$75 inWon+$66.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c120.76$57 inLost-$56.764,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over48c120.11$57 inLost-$57.43,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under68c109.55$75 inWon+$34.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Under53c80$42 inWon+$37.658754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over47c54$25 inLost-$25.3824330.5%74 W · 169 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Over45c52.8$24 inLost-$23.7616036.3%58 W · 102 L-15.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over38c46.14$18 inLost-$17.533,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Over49c40$20 inLost-$19.616951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…9815backed Over47c35$16 inLost-$16.454546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over37c30.5$11 inLost-$11.4239047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over47c25.53$12 inLost-$1250948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Over47c22.47$11 inLost-$10.5619750.3%99 W · 98 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Under54c20.37$11 inWon+$9.3729645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.