Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf50ce71a50b765c3678202f2e80a6e258136507164bc02aa8de619349fccd9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 30c | 5,050$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.43 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 4,835$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.8 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 3,980$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.87 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 61c | 2,758$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.61 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 33c | 2,239$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.48 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 71c | 2,006$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes | 29c | 1,855$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 52c | 1,463$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 71c | 1,232$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.39 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 71c | 1,200$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.99 | 129 | 57.4%74 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 66c | 1,064$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.72 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 33c | 1,032$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.98 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddb…b423backed Yes | 53c | 1,030$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 64c | 1,010$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.6 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 31c | 802.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 76c | 798$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.42 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…7910backed Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 71c | 665.95$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Yes | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 24c | 507.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.56 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 489.66$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 46c | 380$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 71c | 315.34$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 20c | 276.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 241.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 72c | 202.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 73c | 200.7$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 185.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 177.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 151.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 144.56$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…7b0fbacked Yes | 23c | 132.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 70c | 116.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…fe8ebacked No | 78c | 110.85$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 74c | 106.45$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 65c | 104.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 66c | 98.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 73.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a6…db30backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 64.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 52c | 63.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 61.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Yes | 23c | 46.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 55c | 44.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…49babacked Yes | 37c | 40.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 71c | 33.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 53c | 26.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 51c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 69c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked No | 70c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.