Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf51b91edabc7e7a425003c48563af6ef65882b3717566d239705cc77833464ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Aston Villa FC, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Aston Villa FC | 17c | 4,138$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…9148backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 4,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…cb72backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 3,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 2,024$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 627.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Aston Villa FC | 18c | 341.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Aston Villa FC | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Aston Villa FC | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 17.3%14 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 177.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…1959backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 158.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Aston Villa FC | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 132.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 108.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Aston Villa FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f04…fe55backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.