Europa Conference League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce30bc5a986140f573f69091ba0f789bf15daabefd4e1585922003792afe8954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 9,159$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.42 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 7,312$5,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.28 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 74c | 2,027$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.03 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 7c | 2,025$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed3…2811backed Under | 75c | 1,621$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 23c | 1,283$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 75c | 866.67$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…79b6backed Over | 24c | 397.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Over | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Under | 75c | 346.63$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Over | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 6c | 299.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 13c | 299.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 26c | 288.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 74c | 275.14$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 24c | 223.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 24c | 216.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 27c | 187.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…8a93backed Over | 12c | 162.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Under | 75c | 146.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 74c | 143.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 24c | 121.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…2e4ebacked Over | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 74c | 109.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…7d52backed Under | 75c | 101.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 26c | 91.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 74c | 82.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 73.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedaf…5e45backed Over | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 79c | 41.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 38.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 76c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd9…c4b4backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 75c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…f719backed Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…b2e2backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.