TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Aston Villa FCof Nottingham Forest FC, Aston Villa FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,360

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,932 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3f8…4682backed Nottingham Forest FC15c6,488$973 inLost-$973.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ff…6ecebacked Nottingham Forest FC14c3,575$497 inLost-$497.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd242…7be8backed Nottingham Forest FC14c680.93$95 inLost-$95.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nottingham Forest FC8c646.7$50 inLost-$50.4113040%52 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2393…d54dbacked Nottingham Forest FC14c609.42$85 inLost-$85.323336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Nottingham Forest FC13c364.61$46 inLost-$46.3730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Nottingham Forest FC13c277.47$36 inLost-$36.0743344.6%193 W · 240 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC5c269.08$14 inLost-$14.4870239.3%276 W · 426 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Nottingham Forest FC10c245.56$25 inLost-$24.67417.6%13 W · 61 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Nottingham Forest FC15c203.73$31 inLost-$30.561145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Nottingham Forest FC15c145.33$22 inLost-$21.880%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Nottingham Forest FC13c114.94$15 inLost-$14.94195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-76.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Nottingham Forest FC14c82.76$11 inLost-$11.3611246.4%52 W · 60 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Nottingham Forest FC15c77.65$12 inLost-$11.655947.5%28 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fab…afd6backed Nottingham Forest FC14c77.28$11 inLost-$10.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.