Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56240985f7212afe12c425693210c40a04f06b05f25c703aef2c56f212ac330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Tundra Esports, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked OG | 67c | 7,155$4,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked OG | 40c | 4,021$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.81 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tundra Esports | 42c | 2,653$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.09 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports | 67c | 1,871$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.45 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,750$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.5 | 611 | 57.9%354 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 45c | 1,593$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.04 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked OG | 49c | 1,470$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.13 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed OG | 50c | 1,400$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.25 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 1,328$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.51 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports | 68c | 1,320$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.77 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 36c | 1,139$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.61 | 569 | 48.7%277 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed OG | 24c | 1,013$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.03 | 781 | 41.2%322 W · 459 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed OG | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 839.19$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.2 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 17c | 752.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.29 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tundra Esports | 74c | 599$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.26 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…6b34backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed OG | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 489.99$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 280 | 50%140 W · 140 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 33c | 463.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed OG | 57c | 437.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.67 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…4279backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 432$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed OG | 58c | 413.51$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.67 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed OG | 65c | 308.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…3e80backed OG | 51c | 305.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed OG | 19c | 250$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 809 | 42.6%345 W · 464 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Tundra Esports | 29c | 180$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports | 15c | 170.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed OG | 63c | 158.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 46c | 133.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked OG | 76c | 131.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed OG | 23c | 119.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed Tundra Esports | 27c | 103.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Tundra Esports | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 170 | 23.5%40 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…f0bbbacked Tundra Esports | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Tundra Esports | 69c | 93.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked OG | 29c | 89.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed OG | 30c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed OG | 37c | 64.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Tundra Esports | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…037abacked OG | 49c | 46.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e530backed OG | 72c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.