Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24c4d7e2778e97d2f3660a499a91c7a118692d27bd0aa6570a9dbfa1cd96d5b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof Tundra Esports, OG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Tundra Esports | 47c | 9,451$4,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,396.14 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked OG | 70c | 7,872$5,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked OG | 39c | 6,904$2,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.28 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked Tundra Esports | 3c | 4,449$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports | 56c | 3,270$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.35 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 2,635$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.62 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 1,094$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.72 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,005$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.04 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed OG | 26c | 965.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.17 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Tundra Esports | 75c | 854.33$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.01 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked OG | 33c | 797.82$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.54 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Tundra Esports | 46c | 655.91$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed OG | 42c | 598.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.07 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 410$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed OG | 45c | 404.97$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.97 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 399$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.33 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Tundra Esports | 65c | 384.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…d860backed Tundra Esports | 16c | 375$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…8d0dbacked Tundra Esports | 66c | 348.06$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 26c | 338.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.07 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…6b34backed Tundra Esports | 76c | 307.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Tundra Esports | 71c | 296$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 291.81$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.11 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed OG | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1318…0af2backed OG | 29c | 277.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.23 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 39c | 257.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.49 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked OG | 57c | 226.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Tundra Esports | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Tundra Esports | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked Tundra Esports | 44c | 192.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed OG | 36c | 135.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 114.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…b4a6backed OG | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 24cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Tundra Esports | 77c | 96.29$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Tundra Esports | 67c | 89.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked OG | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed OG | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…6cdfbacked Tundra Esports | 30c | 47.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…ca86backed Tundra Esports | 47c | 31.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da7…b914backed Tundra Esports | 75c | 23.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -5.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO3)OG won
- Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.