Tennis · resolved market
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56473848578a32a08bccf9f8329c4d80542cc29b245cf04e65798a1cd954271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e3b…dcc2backed Over 2.5 | 54c | 1,063$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.86 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 569.57$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.57 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under 2.5 | 48c | 302.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.07 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 232.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 229.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over 2.5 | 58c | 193.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Under 2.5 | 49c | 182.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 2.5 | 45c | 151.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 144.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 142.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 1,542 | 49.2%759 W · 783 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 129.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 125.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…c709backed Over 2.5 | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 82.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under 2.5 | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 70.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under 2.5 | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 51.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…fd9ebacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…5bdbbacked Over 2.5 | 58c | 42.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 837 | 47.6%398 W · 439 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 32.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over 2.5 | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Osaka won
- Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.