Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e135df84209042bd639ba71114107387f4892edc099d1e953e952b05d27fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Sabalenka, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Osaka | 54c | 8,125$4,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.75 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Sabalenka | 46c | 7,960$3,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.67 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Sabalenka | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.96 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Osaka | 57c | 999.96$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 171 | 49.1%84 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…1b34backed Sabalenka | 45c | 897.22$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Osaka | 56c | 716.9$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sabalenka | 43c | 620.86$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.97 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…4744backed Osaka | 58c | 517.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.76 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sabalenka | 42c | 485.59$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Osaka | 55c | 447.09$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.57 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Sabalenka | 47c | 428.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 44c | 225.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Osaka | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Sabalenka | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Sabalenka | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…d4f1backed Sabalenka | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Osaka | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Sabalenka | 44c | 183.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Osaka | 54c | 178.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 834 | 47.5%396 W · 438 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Osaka | 60c | 166.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Sabalenka | 42c | 154$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Osaka | 55c | 143.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Sabalenka | 49c | 129.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…3e79backed Sabalenka | 46c | 116.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Osaka | 54c | 114.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Osaka | 54c | 109.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Sabalenka | 54c | 98.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…b707backed Sabalenka | 43c | 97.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Sabalenka | 43c | 95.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Osaka | 52c | 93.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Osaka | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Osaka | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Osaka | 54c | 90.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Osaka | 56c | 89.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Osaka | 50c | 83.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Osaka | 50c | 80.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…c3f7backed Osaka | 59c | 80.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Sabalenka | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Osaka | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Sabalenka | 44c | 68.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Osaka | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Osaka | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Osaka | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Sabalenka | 39c | 38.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Osaka | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 233 | 52.8%123 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Osaka | 55c | 35.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Osaka | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Osaka | 57c | 33.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Osaka | 54c | 33.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Sabalenka | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Osaka | 53c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341d…2995backed Osaka | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 311 | 61.1%190 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Osaka | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Osaka | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Osaka | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +9.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.