Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1915d8e4a39164c44f318ff2e64ac33c702fb1bf5ebeb8c7a54572f30a4be81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Sabalenka, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sabalenka | 43c | 1,609$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.88 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…0acbbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…2dd7backed Osaka | 52c | 726.63$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.78 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Osaka | 58c | 634.4$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5de…cabebacked Osaka | 46c | 415.22$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.22 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc779…8e4fbacked Sabalenka | 61c | 392.38$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.35 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Osaka | 43c | 340.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.91 | 287 | 38.3%110 W · 177 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Sabalenka | 45c | 335.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…3e79backed Osaka | 46c | 308.32$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Osaka | 57c | 249.8$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sabalenka | 50c | 227.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…7cdbbacked Osaka | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Osaka | 56c | 202$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Osaka | 53c | 185.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Sabalenka | 59c | 168.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…4036backed Osaka | 43c | 114.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…797abacked Sabalenka | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Osaka | 52c | 84.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 247 | 62.3%154 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba9a…6fbebacked Sabalenka | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Sabalenka | 67c | 74.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Sabalenka | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Osaka | 46c | 71.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Osaka | 47c | 69.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…ddf6backed Osaka | 49c | 65.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -18.8wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Osaka | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sabalenka | 61c | 46.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2842…e81bbacked Osaka | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Sabalenka | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…a986backed Osaka | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b131backed Osaka | 44c | 38.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…27b6backed Osaka | 73c | 37.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…1346backed Osaka | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2819…c2fcbacked Sabalenka | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osakathis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Osaka won
- Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.