Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61642fa1f27e98b2f6f9ad58fd5823e710846acf1204048b0decddc82f8fc0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Sabalenka, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b0…d5d8backed Osaka | 39c | 1,019$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.93 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sabalenka | 61c | 760.72$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.04 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Sabalenka | 64c | 632$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.48 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Osaka | 36c | 599.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Osaka | 28c | 490.88$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.43 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 490.88$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.43 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1226…f998backed Sabalenka | 53c | 358.73$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 299 | 40.1%120 W · 179 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Sabalenka | 64c | 311.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Sabalenka | 64c | 289.92$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Osaka | 37c | 226.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Osaka | 36c | 207.86$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sabalenka | 28c | 154.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Osaka | 61c | 115.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sabalenka | 59c | 104.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Sabalenka | 62c | 95.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Sabalenka | 61c | 80.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Sabalenka | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Osaka | 37c | 65.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7fd6backed Osaka | 38c | 62.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Osaka | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Osaka | 36c | 47.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…5792backed Sabalenka | 63c | 45.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847a…9cd1backed Sabalenka | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04df…3e79backed Sabalenka | 63c | 43.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Osaka | 37c | 43.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Sabalenka | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…1c4ebacked Sabalenka | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Sabalenka | 61c | 21.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…a986backed Osaka | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Osaka | 75c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Osaka | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Osakathis page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sabalenka vs. Osaka: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs OsakaOsaka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Osaka won
- Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi OsakaNaomi Osaka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.