NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf57967cd0936f2acdfb455085be4b272e5c3cab6d9428cb4a4ae926a63c4023c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 50c | 60,270$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.3wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 7,867$4,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,775.9 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 6,298$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.77 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 4,312$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,156 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 2,483$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.6 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 2,007$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.6 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Over | 48c | 1,481$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 52c | 715$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.2 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 54c | 433.88$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.22 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a8…3c7cbacked Over | 46c | 212.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…fcfabacked Over | 46c | 212.04$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 179$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +15.3wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 65.7%69 W · 36 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 52c | 37.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 51c | 27.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Under | 50c | 22.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Chargers vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 37.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-14.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-5.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.