NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x320b79a4db7e98f7faa675f2bebf5521857e731c26ef7caa25cddb970c368ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 53c | 5,625$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 5,561$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.29 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Over | 51c | 860.37$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 741$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 602.57$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.66 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 574.99$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.49 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Over | 52c | 230.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Under | 49c | 208$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 208$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.08 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 54c | 199.9$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 194$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 48c | 179.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…3e52backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafa…dd84backed Under | 51c | 49.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 37.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-8.5)Chargers won
- Chargers vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Chargers vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 38.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Broncos: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: Broncos (-12.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-13.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-14.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-2.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-5.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-6.5)Broncos won
- Spread: Broncos (-7.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.