Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58119786ed0688f6cfe53fb4894003be88716ce554b49af5a277e4a8287ab07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,669$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 512.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 447.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 8c | 348.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 327.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 10c | 319.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 10c | 309.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 276.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 230.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 209.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 5c | 201.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 189.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 172.05$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 161.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 147.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 52c | 133.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 128.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 119.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 111.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 105.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 19c | 99.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 11c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 90.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 33c | 66.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 69c | 62.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 24c | 54.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 53.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 71c | 51.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 45.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…0335backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 38.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 38.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 36.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 34.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 39c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 68c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked No | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 69c | 20.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…1633backed No | 76c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 60c | 17.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 62c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.